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09/07/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time champions Kim Clijsters and Venus Williams advanced to the semifinals of the U.S. Open Tuesday night. The two will face off against one another on Friday.
Clijsters, the 2005 and 2009 champion, held off Australian Samantha Stosur, 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 to win her 19th straight match on the New York hard courts, while Williams advanced with a 7-6 (7-5), 6-4 victory over Italian Francesca Schiavone.
The second-seeded Clijsters trailed 3-1 in the first before battling back to level the set at four games apiece with a service break. After holding serve, the Belgian broke the fifth-seeded Stosur again to take the first set.
Trailing 2-0 in the second, the former world No. 1 Clijsters broke Stosur to level the set at two apiece and then held serve to move in front for the first time.
However, Stosur broke back to move into a 5-4 lead only to have Clijsters return the favor to even things up at five each. The 26-year-old Australian then claimed the next two games to force the third and deciding set.
Tied at one in the decisive set, Stosur and Clijsters alternated four straight service breaks to get to 3-3. Clijsters then won the next three games to move on and lift her record to 4-1 in U.S. Open quarterfinals.
Clijsters has won all four of their head-to-head meetings, including two this season.
Stosur was the first Australian woman to advance the quarterfinals here since Wendy Turnbull in 1986 and was blunted in her attempt to become the first Aussie female to reach the semis since Turnbull did so in 1984.
The third-seeded Williams, the last woman to win back-to-back U.S. Open titles when she triumphed here in 2000 and 2001, broke to move ahead 3-2 in the first set but then lost three straight games to fall behind, 5-4. The two-time U.S. Open runner-up held serve to force the tiebreak and claimed the last two points to take the first set.
The sixth-seeded Schiavone broke to get within 4-3 in the second set, only to have the American break back to move to the precipice of winning the match. However, the French Open champion answered with a break of her own to pull within 5-4 before Williams broke back again to move on after winning for a 52nd time in 53 matches in the last major of the season when taking the first set.
Schiavone, the only Italian woman to win a Grand slam title, did not drop a set in tournament before falling to Williams, who has not lost a set in her first five matches.
Williams improved to 8-0 in her career against Schiavone.
"I know when I play her, I'm going to have to play good tennis," Williams said about her numerous encounters with Schiavone. "I really do enjoy our matchups. There have been times when she's had me down, but fortunately, I was able to come back."
Williams and Clijsters have split 12 all-time matchups, but the Belgian has won the last four encounters. That includes a pair of wins at the U.S. Open and in a tournament on hardcourts this year in Miami.
The quarterfinals will continue on Wednesday, as top-seeded Dane Caroline Wozniacki will meet unseeded Slovak Dominika Cibulkova and seventh-seeded Wimbledon runner-up Vera Zvonareva will encounter 31st-seeded Estonian Kaia Kanepi.
<< Bourn, Astros top Cubs
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Bourn finished 3-for-4 with three RBI
and fell a home run shy of the cycle as Houston downed Chicago, 7-3, in the
middle test of a three-game set from Wrigley Field.
Jeff Keppinger had a pair of
<< Twins blast Royals, expand lead in AL Central
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Francisco Liriano pitched seven solid
innings and Delmon Young drove in four runs, as the Minnesota Twins cruised to
a 10-3 win over the Kansas City Royals in the middle contest of a three-game
series.
<< Back in first: Phillies edge Marlins to grab top spot in NL East
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco's eighth-inning two-out
RBI single was the difference, as Philadelphia nipped Florida, 8-7, in the
third installment of a four-game series.
The victory, coupled with Atlanta's los
<< Pirates blank Braves, who fall out of division lead
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Delwyn Young capped a five-run seventh with
a two-run homer and James McDonald tossed seven scoreless innings, as the
Pittsburgh Pirates shut down the Atlanta Braves, 5-0, in the second test of a
three-g
Verdasco rallies from two-set deficit to shock Ferrer >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fernando Verdasco came back from a
two-set deficit to stun fellow Spaniard David Ferrer and reach the
quarterfinals at the U.S. Open.
The eighth-seeded Verdasco reached the quarterfinals here for a sec
Gonzalez continues torrid pace as Rockies down Reds >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Gonzalez, arguably the league's hottest
hitter, blasted an early three-run homer to help lift the streaking Colorado
Rockies to a 4-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds.
Gonzalez extended his hit streak
Giants use three HRs, Lincecum's pitching to down D'Backs >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum pitched solidly into the seventh
inning and the San Francisco Giants used three home runs to defeat the Arizona
Diamondbacks, 6-3, at Chase Field.
Lincecum (13-9) allowed three runs on five hi
Angels release longtime utilityman Quinlan >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels cut ties with utilityman
Robb Quinlan, who has been with the team since 2003.
Quinlan has played sparingly this year, recording only four hits in 33 at-
bats. Never a starter but
March Madness odds and printable March Madness brackets
With the field of 64/65 set, MySportsbook.com has the Florida Gators as the 4-1 favorite to successfully defend their National Championship. Men’s Division-1 College Basketball has not seen a team repeat as National Champions since Duke won back to back championships in ’91 & ‘92. After losing three out of four late in the season, the Gators are full of momentum as they won their last four games by an average of 18 points. Not surprisingly, right behind the Gators are the other three top seeds: Kansas 5-1, UNC 6-1, and Ohio State 7-1. Many consider Kansas to be the hottest team in the country, having won 11 straight. With Kansas, it is hard to ignore all of the early exits from the “dance” in recent years. With an impressive ACC Tournament, UNC ensured themselves the other top seed. UNC has about as much talent as any other team in the tournament but with a team that’s best players are primarily freshman and sophomores, could youth be a concern. Behind freshman sensation, Greg Oden, OSU will look to do what their football team failed to do just a few months earlier. OSU seems to have peeked at the right time, as they currently have a 17 game winning streak. Since the tournament field was expanded in 1985, there has never been an instance where all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. It is obvious that each of the top seeds have the talent to make it through to Atlanta. But as everyone knows, when makes the NCAA Tournament so special are all of the spoilers and “Cinderella” stories that knock off the favorites on a daily basis.
Be sure to logon to MySportsbook.com to see check out all of the early lines and “March Madness” props. Also be sure to enter the “$10,000,000 Perfect Bracket Contest”. If someone has the skills to predict every winner, they will be set for life and walk away with $10,000,000. Even if no one can cash in on the Grand Prize, with a $35,000 guaranteed prize pool and a Mazda RX-8 to the first prize winner, Sportsbook.com’s bracket is a must for all “March Madness” fans.
MySportsbook.com’s odds to win the Championship and Regions:
| EAST | National Championship | Region |
| Arkansas | 300-1 | 50-1 |
| Belmont | 1000-1 | |
| Boston College | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Eastern KY | 1000-1 | |
| George Washington | 75-1 | |
| Georgetown | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| Marquette | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Michigan State | 100-1 | 25-1 |
| New Mexico St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| UNC | 6-1 | 6-5 |
| Oral Roberts | 500-1 | |
| Texas | 15-1 | 5-1 |
| Texas Tech | 200-1 | 5-1 |
| USC | 75-1 | 20-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Washington State | 40-1 | 15-1 |
| WEST | ||
| Duke | 50-1 | 10-1 |
| Florida A&M | 1000-1 | |
| Gonzaga | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Holy Cross | 300-1 | |
| Illinois | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Indiana | 75-1 | 40-1 |
| Kansas | 5-1 | 13-10 |
| Kentucky | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Niagara | 1000-1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 40-1 | 8-1 |
| Southern Ill. | 50-1 | 12-1 |
| UCLA | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| VCU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Villanova | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| VA Tech | 50-1 | 15-1 |
| Weber St | 1000-1 | |
| Wright St | 1000-1 | 300-1 |
| MIDWEST | ||
| Arizona | 50-1 | 30-1 |
| Butler | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Davidson | 300-1 | |
| Florida | 4-1 | 4-5 |
| Georgia Tech | 75-1 | 25-1 |
| Jackson State | 1000-1 | |
| Maryland | 30-1 | 6-1 |
| Miami-OH | 300-1 | |
| Notre Dame | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| ODU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Oregon | 40-1 | 6-1 |
| Purdue | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Texas A&M CC | 1000-1 | |
| UNLV | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Winthrop | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Wisconsin | 15-1 | 7-2 |
| SOUTH | ||
| Albany | 200-1 | |
| BYU | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Central CT St. | 1000-1 | |
| Creighton | 100-1 | 35-1 |
| Long Beach St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| Louisville | 40-1 | 10-1 |
| Memphis | 30-1 | 4-1 |
| Nevada | 75-1 | 35-1 |
| North Texas | 500-1 | |
| Ohio State | 7-1 | 6-5 |
| Penn | 500-1 | |
| Stanford | 200-1 | 50-1 |
| Tennessee | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| Texas A&M | 12-1 | 11-5 |
| Virginia | 75-1 | 18-1 |
| Xavier | 100-1 | 40-1 |
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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